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Strategic Foresight

Seeing the Future / Defining the Narrative

Details

Role: Strategy

Focus: Foresight

Outputs: Trend Insights / Scenario Narratives

Strategic Foresight is about developing deep insights into the various trends and events happening in the world – including the forces behind them – so that we can develop a very focused picture of what the range of possible and plausible new futures confronting us could look like.   This allows us to more deeply understand the ‘future sandbox’ the organization has to operate in – together with where the organization should fit into that.

To do this, Strategic Foresight requires us to scan for different trends occurring in the organization's ‘environment‘, as well as out along its ‘horizon’ – so that we can understand not only what is presently happening around it, or has recently happened, but more importantly, what is possible and likely to happen in its future, given these different forces at work.   It is these forces… these drivers… that are just as important – if not more important – as the trends & events themselves, for it is they that will either carry or disrupt the flow of those trends.
To do this work, Strategic Foresight offers us a very specific set of tools and methods by which to study, contemplate, and consider these forces, so that we can then understand the full range of possible new futures that could occur in the days ahead.

Doing this collaboratively together is a practice we refer to as Collective Prospection.

Undertaking Strategic Foresight work is extremely important, because if an organization is to ensure that it is pursuing a truly resilient path into the future, it must look well ahead into that future and strive to understand – to the extent possible – the full range of possibilities open to it at different times – so that ultimately it can – via Strategic Futuring – significantly influence and drive that future to become what it wants the future to be… the practice commonly known as “shaping the future”.

Our Strategic Foresight work is divided into three sequential stages.
—
Framing | Scanning | Analysis & Forecasting

Framing

The purpose of Framing is to enable the organization to define the boundaries within which it will pursue its Strategic Foresight efforts – and later on its Strategic Futuring efforts.

To undertake Framing, we gather the organization's leaders together and collectively guide them in selecting certain specific areas of interest – known as Strategic Domains – on which the organization will then focus its upcoming Scanning, Analysis, and Forecasting work.   Where needed, these can be further divided into Sub-Domains.

The choice of Strategic Domains to focus on will arise out of a number of different strategic considerations.   It is an important choice, because it will define the boundaries on the inputs the organization has available to it later on when undertaking Strategic Futuring work.

Within each Strategic Domain or Sub-Domain chosen, the organization will also define certain specific Themes – and inside of those, certain specific Sub-Themes – that it wishes to explore and study more specifically.

Also, in addition to the broad, general Domains, Sub-Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes the organization selects, certain stakeholders in the organization may also request that additional, more narrow, Domains, Sub-Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes be investigated on their behalf – to be used in efforts of concern only to them.   The distinction is thus made between the normal broad-focus areas (which will likely be with the organization for a long time), and these more deep-focus areas (which are special one-off, more narrowly defined, efforts for these individual stakeholders).

Together, the broad-focus Domains / Sub-Domains / Themes / Sub-Themes, and any more narrow deep-focus Domains / Sub-Domains / Themes / Sub-Themes, define the full breadth of where the organization will focus all of its subsequent Scanning, Analysis, and Forecasting efforts.

Scanning

The purpose of Scanning is to identify, profile, and document all of the trends and events – however obscure – happening inside the Domains, Sub-Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes chosen by the organization.

To undertake Scanning, our Researchers engage in a very specific series of tasks aimed at identifying, profiling, and documenting each of these trends and events.

This identification, profiling, and documentation of trends and events creates a knowledgebase for the organization, which it can subsequently employ at any given time to know what is happening inside its chosen Domains and Sub-Domains.   It also creates the inputs our downstream Analysts will employ in their subsequent Analysis & Forecasting efforts.

To carry out our Scanning work, we employ a very specific set of tools and practices.
These include the following:
  • Environmental Scanning
  • Horizon Scanning
  • Trend Watching
  • Trend Scouting
  • Listening Posts

Analysis & Forecasting

The purpose of Analysis & Forecasting is to very carefully study and analyze each of the trends and events previously identified and documented in the Scanning effort, so as to fully understand their drivers, trajectories, and (most importantly) implications to the organization – and to thereafter forecast a range of possible futures that could occur as a result of each of these trends and events, combined with other factors like the actions of the organization and other parties – all interacting with and impacting one another.

To undertake Analysis & Forecasting, our Analysts engage in a very specific series of tasks aimed at studying and analyzing the identified trends and events, and thereafter leveraging those foresights to define the range of possible and plausible future scenarios the organization could encounter in the days, weeks, months, years, and decades ahead of it.

This range of possible and plausible new futures thus creates the ‘canvas’ onto which our (and the organization's) Visionaries can start to paint new visions for an ‘ideal and preferred future’ at different points in time – the one unique scenario deemed most desirable and advantageous to the organization's cause – and likewise our Strategists can ultimately craft impactful new strategies for the organization, which will allow it to shape, drive, and otherwise influence the future toward that new ideal.

To carry out our Analysis & Forecasting work, we employ a very specific set of tools and practices.
These include the following:
  • PESTEL Analysis
  • Trend Impact Analysis
  • Futures Wheel
  • Real Time Delphi Study
  • Cross Impact Analysis
  • Quantitative Simulation
  • Wild Cards Analysis
  • Opportunity Analysis
  • Scenario Analysis / Planning
To learn more about any of these practices and their associated methods, drop us a line… we'll be happy to explain them in complete detail.
The outcomes of our Strategic Foresight work
The outcomes, and thus deliverables, of our foresights work are the following:

  • The definition and subsequent documentation of a very specific array of Domains, Sub-Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes for the organization, which bounds all of our ensuing Scanning, Analysis, and Forecasting work.   These derive from our upfront Framing work with the organization.

  • The scouting and subsequent documentation of any number of relevant trends and events happening inside or alongside these Domains, Sub-Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes — including any weak signals and potential wild cards.

  • The subsequent analyses – and documentation – of these different trends and events — including how they will each interact with and impact the others to produce an entire range of possible new future scenarios.

  • The subsequent forecasting – and documentation – of a specific range of plausible new future scenarios for the organization to consider — including the future scenario(s) most desirable to the organization – and how each of those could in fact impact the organization.
These are all formally documented in a final Strategic Foresights Report.
The foundation for Strategic Futuring
Strategic Foresights delivers the necessary foundation for being able to subsequently undertake Strategic Futuring.

Indeed, without first completing this foresights work, it is impossible to properly undertake any futuring work, as Strategic Futuring inherently relies on having these plausible future scenarios defined, given that such future scenarios provide the ‘canvas’ onto which Strategic Futuring casts its new visions and crafts its new strategies.

Consequently, it is mandatory to undertake this Strategic Foresight work first, prior to being able to undertake the corresponding Strategic Futuring work.   Otherwise, the Strategic Futuring work will be operating on guesses, rather than on proper analysis and forecasting, and as a result will produce subpar and unreliable results.   The two activities must always therefore be used in sequence with each other.

Beyond this, it is important for every organization to understand that Strategic Foresight is not simply a once-and-done activity.   Rather it has to be a constantly ongoing activity the organization is perpetually engaged in – so that at any given time it understands the trends happening around it and can act accordingly – altering its strategies and devising new strategies – so as to be able to continuously shape and drive its future indefinitely.

Drop us a line to learn more about this work.
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Engage Us

Your challenges are complex.   Working with us shouldn't be.   We work hard to explain and simplify each step along our collective journey… what we'll be doing, how undertaking that step will work, how long each step or phase is expected to take, and the mechanisms by which each step or phase will succeed in achieving your organization's unique goals and aspirations.

At the end of the day, we want to ensure you're confident in our journey ahead — and that our work will deliver for your organization the outcomes and results – and impacts – needed for it to be able to own and shape its future.   That's why we're here.

01. Conversation
Real change starts with a conversation.   Here, we sit and talk with you about your organization and its needs & aspirations going forward.   This is a no-judgment / high-aspiration zone – and so we're completely open and honest here… nothing's off the table… everything is fair game.   We want to know the whole story… where you've been, where you presently are, and where it is you want to go.   That gets us to Step 2.
02. Proposal
Understanding both your present situation and your future aspirations, we prepare for you a Proposal detailing exactly what course of action we intend to undertake with your organization – in this case that revolving around Strategic Foresight.   Documenting this plan of action and its expected outcomes puts us all on the same page with respect to our collective gameplan and its goalposts. That gets us to Step 3.
03. Execution
At the agreed-upon date, we engage with your organization and begin working together to execute the plan.   This requires a firm commitment from both sides to do all the hard work needed to achieve success.   Together, we work the plan methodically and systematically — checking in at numerous points to ensure that our efforts are in fact achieving their intended outcomes and results (if not, we circle back and either reinforce an effort and adjust the plan – always in tune with how your organization is responding).   Our goal is to fully achieve the engagement's expected outcomes, results, and impacts.
04. Follow Up
Because not all outcomes and results can be known immediately, we follow up with you over the course of several months – even years if need be – to ensure your organization is remaining on course with our interventions and in fact achieving its intended outcomes and results.   In most cases it will be.   But if for some reason it's not, then we'll still be here to help it get back – and remain – on track — ensuring that it continues achieving the needed outcomes, results, and impacts over the long run.

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